Consilium BCI Worldwide Fund - Commentary Nov 2022

The global equity markets strengthened again in November following market expectations that interest rates will ease in the upcoming months and this was also spurred by the bond market.

Consilium BCI Worldwide Fund - Commentary Oct 2022

Earnings season continued in October and Q3 earnings number weren’t as bad as the market expected again (but earnings growth has been relatively lower compared to previous comparable quarters).

Consilium BCI Worldwide Fund - Commentary Sept 2022

September is generally known for being a tough month for equities e.g., just last year during September, the S&P 500 had its worst monthly performance since March 2020. This year is no different in terms of major indices declines during the month with S&P 500 declining by 9.2%, NASDAQ 100 down 10.5% and MXWO Index was down 9.3%.

Consilium BCI Worldwide Fund - Commentary Aug 2022

Performance was slightly disappointing following the strong gains the market experienced in July. The fund was down 2.1% for the month of August, outperforming the MSCI World Index which was down 4.3% for the month, bringing the year-to-date number (until 31 Aug. 2022) of the index to -17.5%. In summary, emerging markets outperformed developed markets with MSCI Emerging Market Index up 0.4% for the month.

Consilium BCI Worldwide Fund - Commentary June 2022

There are only a few places for investors to hide in this downturn with both developed and emerging market equities ended in the red for the month of June. MSCI Emerging Market Index was down 6.6% for the month, slightly ahead of MSCI World which was down 8.6% for the month.

Consilium BCI Worldwide Fund - Commentary May 2022

Market concerns are still the same with peak inflation being a major topic, monetary tightening, Covid and geopolitical tensions. As a result, performance over the past few months has been difficult but there was a bit of reprieve during May with performance being flat after the retreat we experienced in April.

Consilium BCI Worldwide Fund - Commentary April 2022

Equity markets ended the month in the red, with MSCI World down 8.3%, MSCI Emerging Markets down 5.6% and Stoxx 600 Index down -5.4%. A recap of what’s been happening in the equities market during April- the start of earnings season, ongoing war in Ukraine, the expectations of the Fed hiking rates faster, continued supply chain disruptions and the impact of Covid lockdowns in China.

Consilium BCI Worldwide Fund - Commentary March 2022

The MSCI World Index was up 2.8% for the month, offering a degree of recovery following two months of losses in the market. Overall, for the first quarter of the year, the major indices reported their biggest quarterly losses in the last two years. Furthermore, earnings season is also starting the second week of April, and this will be one of the main topics that will be spurring the market performance.

Consilium BCI Worldwide Fund - Commentary Feb 2022

Inflation and interest rate increases were one of the main topics dominating the beginning of 2022. Headlines are now been dominated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which began on 24 February is a humanitarian and economic crisis which has implications for the global economy.

Consilium BCI Worldwide Fund - Commentary Jan 2022

If we were to use one word to describe the beginning of the year in the equities market, it would be ‘turbulent’. The tech heavy market index, the Nasdaq Composite, recorded its worst January performance since 2008 amid the global financial crisis, with returns down c.9% in USD terms and down 12% in rand terms for the month.

Consilium BCI Worldwide Fund- Recap for 2021 and outlook for 2022

2021 was a strong year for the global equity markets with the U.S. equity markets leading the way; this was mainly driven by strong corporate earnings, fiscal and monetary stimulus, and optimism about the resilience of the global economy.

Worldwide Fund Commentary - October '21

Following a turbulent September where we saw the equity market having the worst performance during the year, in October we saw the market reaching new highs during the month as the market returned to the optimism they’ve been carrying during the year.

Worldwide Fund Commentary - September '21

The U.S. equity market had a tough month with the S&P 500 having its worst monthly performance since March 2020, when the pandemic hit us.

Worldwide Fund Commentary - August '21

The rotation between Value versus Growth stocks continued during the month, with Growth outperforming Value this time. The MSCI World Growth Index was up 3.3% for August while MSCI World Value Index was up 1.7%.

Worldwide Fund Commentary - June '21

Volatility came back to the market this month with the Chicago Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX Index) going over 20, reaching its highest point since May but the index has been decreasing since the spike.

Of fairy-tales and coins

Bill Maher makes his living as a comedian and political commentator. But like many others, he’s been drawn into the frenzied debate around cryptocurrency. How does he see it?

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One of the fundamental characteristics of Bitcoin that its champions find attractive is its boundedness; there will only ever be 21 million coins. The argument goes that the value of the cryptocurrency is, therefore, immune to devaluation by an increase in supply, unlike the US dollar

Blog Post 5

Hot market trends must always be examined through a sceptical lens. It’s all too easy to take the broad acceptance of an idea and assume that the herd has done all the research and thinking necessary to make it bullet proof.

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The value of partnering with a business that understands wealth creation is that they can help you stay focused on what matters.

Blog Post 3

The biggest threat to the global equity and fixed income asset classes is a steep inflationary kick in the US. Such a move would likely force the Fed to hike interest rates faster than the market currently expects.

Blog Post 2

Bubbles are always a contentious issue. The one defining characteristic they all share is an excess of optimism. And there are certainly examples of this in the current landscape – Bitcoin, Tesla, GameStop, and the rise of special purpose acquisition companies (SPACs), all fit the exuberance bill.

Blog Post 1

The direction of commodity prices remains important for many emerging market countries, South Africa included. For example, our mining industry generates more revenue when commodity prices are strong, which means our government collects more income tax, improving our country’s financial health (we in South Africa so desperately need).

Worldwide Fund Commentary - February '21

We saw the continuation of the equities rally in February, driven by similar factors as in January. Due to the optimism in the market as more people get vaccinated, fiscal stimulus from the US government as well as the Fed chairman stating that they will be keep interest rates low in order to support economic recovery.